Analyst says Apple TV sales below initial projections

Tech analyst Forrester Research, which in May predicted Apple TV sales this year of one million units, says Apple has sold only 400,000 and will be lucky to sell another 400,000 before the end of the year. The report says Apple TV’s sales forecast tracks about the same as the GarageBand loop library CD-ROMs. Ouch!

I said a couple of weeks ago I thought Apple TV has technical, strategic and marketing problems but that the lack of content was the biggest holdup. Let me repeat:

I want to watch whatever I want to watch whenever I want to watch it. Any season, any episode. On my HDTV and in HD. Without waiting 45 minutes for it to download. Even if it’s live. Oh, and movies on demand.

That sounds like a lot, but the whole-enchilada approach is is a big part of the reason the iTunes/iTunes Store/iPod model has worked so well. You can download more or less anything you want — OK, still no Beatles or Radiohead. You can download it from your compute or directly from your iPhone/iPod touch. You can mix up the tracks anyway you want and listen to them on your computer and all of your iPods.

Now Apple TV:

1. No NBC shows and only select shows from other networks.
2. No shows available the same night they airs on network.
3. No all-you-can eat subscription plan for shows.
4. Only limited movie selection.
5. No movies available on a pay-per-view basis.
6. No shows or movies available in HD.
7. No DVR.
8. NO DVD, Blu-Ray or DVD-HD.
9. No direct purchase. (You have to buy from iTS and then sync.)

Apple could and probably will correct many of the technical issues — HD content and direct purchase in particular — but Apple TV is never going to get above niche status until the content is broad enough that you can name ten shows and ten movies off the top of your head and know that most of them are available.

Prognosis: Macworld in January would be a good time for Apple to demonstrate some progress at a typically consumer-oriented event, but Apple and NBC are apparently not even negotiating and the Hollywood writers’ strike is putting a damper on everything else. We could see an announcement of Fox movie titles coming to iTS and possibly movies on demand, but I don’t expect much on the TV side.